Is it possible to roughly estimate network traffic distribution for given ASN?

[streiner at cluebyfour.org (Justin M. Streiner)]

On Fri, 14 Aug 2015, Martin T wrote:

> there are various tools out there which show the prefix distribution
> among the peers/uplinks for given ASN. For example
> https://radar.qrator.net/as3333/graph#96311 or
> http://bgp.he.net/AS3333#_asinfo. As far as I know, those tools build
> the graphs mainly based on data from route servers. Am I correct that
> at best this data could give very rough estimation on ingress traffic
> for ASN as those graphs indicate announced prefixes? I mean for
> example if ASN 1 announces 1.1.0.0/16, 2.2.0.0/16 and 3.3.0.0/16 to
> ASN 2, but only 1.1.0.0/16 to ASN 3, then one could assume that more
> ingress data to ASN 1 goes over ASN 2. What about egress traffic? In
> general, are there ways to roughly estimate network traffic
> distribution for given ASN among its peers/uplinks? I would say it is
> not possible.

You can certainly make inferences about the traffic between ASN 1 and ASN 
2, 3, etc... however without being the operator of one of those ASNs, 
those inferences are just that - inferences.  Even if you operate a 
network that peers with both ASN 1 and ASN 3, the traffic you see 
transiting your network to get to/from them might only be a fraction of 
the total traffic between those ASNs, given the possibility of there being 
other paths between then that don't cross your network.

What are you trying to figure out?  If you want to see how much traffic 
you move between your AS and another AS, Netflow, IPFIX, and other tools 
can help you figure that out.  If you're looking for the same kind of 
data for a source, destination (or both) that you don't control, all you 
can realistically do is guess.

jms